Live by the Sword, Die by the same Sword
The media was quick to jump on a poll released by an outfit called Public Policy Polling or “PPP” back on February 10th that showed a “surging” Debra Medina nearly about to overtake Kay Bailey Hutchison and be in a runoff with Governor Perry. Television outlets where just as quick to point out that PPP was the most accurate polling information in the recent Scott Brown Senate race in Massachusetts.
Tomorrow, that same organization will be the first ones to release a poll following the now infamous coming out of the truther closet by Debra Medina and it doesn’t look good for the radical fringe candidacy from Wharton County. Of those whose who believe, accurately so, that Debra Medina is a truther: 51% are supporting Governor Perry, 30% are supporting Kay Bailey Hutchison, and only 7% are now supporting Medina. The shine has worn off, the ship has sunk, whatever you want to say….but Glenn Beck was nearly right when he said “fastest way back to 4%” after the interview. Now amongst the truther crowd, Medina does well by getting 33% to 32% for Hutchison and 29% for Perry. Bad news for Medina is this will clearly tell the independent and undecideds that her base is the truther movement and they will quickly leave her camp in droves…driving the overall numbers even lower.
Chatter on facebook and twitter, or on comment postings as I spoke about in another post, show that the truther movement is a loud but small group of people and they are sticking by her side. This is not a blessing because it simply reinforces the fact that she is a truther.
For Perry, this poll is even better news. PPP is a liberal polling outfit, conducting polling for Planned Parenthood and North Carolina Democratic leaning organizations. If they are showing Perry with more than the magical 50%, one can only assume that he is polling even higher amongst true conservatives.
The question then becomes will this new poll get as much public attention from the media as the one on February 10th? Will the media die by the same sword they lived by back a few weeks ago? The narrative has been, seeking opinion from liberal political science professors from SMU, UT, TCU, etc., that incumbents get only what they poll – that this thing is clearly headed for a runoff. They didn’t take into consideration the Texas Credit Union poll that showed Perry at 49% (adding in the +/- and he was over the 50% mark) because it didn’t fit what they wanted to be the picture they are trying to paint – which is why I will wager tomorrow’s poll doesn’t garner the same spotlight. Media in Texas want this to go into OT (a runoff) because it gives them A) more ad revenue from a longer campaign and B) more news coverage to focus on.
Looks like they will not be getting their wishes after all.